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| United States Patent Application |
20090171597
|
| Kind Code
|
A1
|
|
Drews; Peter
|
July 2, 2009
|
Evaluation method
Abstract
The invention is directed to an evaluation method for determining a power
reduction due to ageing of at least one photovoltaic module at constant
radiation intensity with a measurement of an electric variable that may
change after a period of time such as cell current, cell voltage and/or
cell power, without additional sensors for measuring the radiation
intensity, with the following steps fixing at least one class k that
can be compared year by year and within which a daily power curve or
portions of the daily power curve of the photovoltaic module can be
compared to each other due to the radiation intensity and the outside
temperature to be expected as well as the radiation time, the class k
corresponding to a defined period of a year, measuring energy output
values Ek,n that can be compared year by year from a comparable power
curve Pk,n (t) through the variable delivered by the photovoltaic
generator so that energy differences are determined on the basis of the
classes k, n being the respective year, indicating a power reduction of
the photovoltaic module with respect to one or several previous years
from the energy output value E k,n directly delivered by the photovoltaic
module by calculating the difference with respect to the energy outputs
Ek,i of the years i to be compared, data of comparable days having a
comparable power curve P(t) of the photovoltaic module being observed
over several years.
| Inventors: |
Drews; Peter; (Kassel, DE)
|
| Correspondence Address:
|
PYLE & PIONTEK, LLC
221 N LASALLE STREET , ROOM 1207
CHICAGO
IL
60601
US
|
| Assignee: |
SMA Solar Technology AG
Niestetal
DE
|
| Serial No.:
|
316354 |
| Series Code:
|
12
|
| Filed:
|
December 11, 2008 |
| Current U.S. Class: |
702/60; 702/64 |
| Class at Publication: |
702/60; 702/64 |
| International Class: |
G01R 21/00 20060101 G01R021/00; G01R 21/06 20060101 G01R021/06 |
Foreign Application Data
| Date | Code | Application Number |
| Jan 1, 2008 | EP | EP 07024889.3 |
Claims
1. An evaluation method for determining a power reduction due to ageing of
at least one photovoltaic module at constant radiation intensity by
measuring an electric variable that may change after a period of time
such as cell current, cell voltage and/or cell power without additional
sensors for measuring the radiation intensitywith the following
stepsfixing at least one class k that can be compared year by year and
within which a daily power curve or portions of the daily power curve of
the photovoltaic module can be compared to each other due to the
radiation intensity and the outside temperature to be expected as well as
the radiation time, the class k corresponding to a defined period of a
year,measuring energy output values Ek,n that can be compared year by
year from a comparable power curve Pk,n (t) through the variable
delivered by the p
hotovoltaic generator so that energy differences are
determined on the basis of the classes k, n being the respective
year,indicating a power reduction of the photovoltaic module with respect
to one or several previous years from the energy output value E k,n
directly delivered by the photovoltaic module by calculating the
difference with respect to the energy outputs Ek,i of the years i to be
compared,data of comparable days having a comparable power curve P(t) of
the photovoltaic module being observed over several years.
2. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 1, characterized by
acquiring and/or filing a daily curve of the power P(t) of the generator
as well as of the energy output E of the day for the generator, in
particular in a data bank,determining a daily power curve Pk,n(t) the
course of which is comparable at least with a daily power curve Pk,i(t)
from previous years i andfiling the daily output curve Pk,n(t) found and
the energy output Ek,n in a data bank.
3. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 1, characterized by forming
daily classes kj, which are allocated to fixed time intervals of a day.
4. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 1, characterized by forming
and evaluating a first derivation of the function P(t).
5. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 1, characterized in that
only energy output values are compared which come from measurement
periods comprising only one daily power peak.
6. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 1, characterized in that
data with comparable power curve P(t) of the photovoltaic module are
observed over several years.
7. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 4, characterized by
determining comparable days in one step by determining and evaluating the
number of zero crossings of the first derivation P'(t) is determined and
evaluated.
8. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 4, characterized by
determining comparable days in two steps bya. evaluating the first
derivation P'(t) of the function P(t) using a first criterion andb.
evaluating the daily power curve P(t) using a second criterion.
9. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 8, characterized by the
first criterion for evaluating the first derivation P'(t) by the fact
that the extreme values of the first derivation P'(t) will not exceed an
upper limit value P'max and will not fall below a lower limit value P'min
or that the area included by the curve of the first derivation P'(t) will
not exceed a fixed limit value.
10. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 8, characterized by the
second criterion for this evaluation of the daily power curve P(t) by the
fact that the daily energy output Etag is formed and that this daily
energy output lies above a fixed limit value or that the maximum of the
daily power curve P(t) lies within a tolerance band Pabs_min and Pabs
max.
11. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 1, characterized by
specifying limit values in the first year of measurement and verifying
the limit values in the following years.
12. The evaluation method as set forth in claim 1, characterized by
acquiring at least one average value .DELTA.Emittel,n from the k energy
output difference values .DELTA.Ek,n for the year n as a measure for
power reduction.
13. A solar plant with means for carrying out the measurement method as
set forth in claim 1.
Description
1. FIELD OF THE INVENTION
[0001]The invention relates to an evaluation method for determining a
power reduction due to aging of at least one photovoltaic module at
constant radiation intensity by measuring an electrical variable that may
vary after a while such as cell current, cell voltage and/or cell power
without additional sensors for measuring the radiation intensity.
[0002]The power of solar cells or of photovoltaic modules is subject to
aging. The loss of efficiency ranges from 10% to 20% over a period of
time of 20 years.
[0003]For mounting, solar cells are combined into modules, so-called solar
or photovoltaic modules or solar panels. After 20 years, a solar module
only has 90% to 80% of the power indicated.
2. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRIOR ART
[0004]From a study "Pratt R. G. et al: "Power of a 4 kW amorphous-silicon
alloy photovoltaic array at Oakland Community College, Auburn Hills,
Mich." XP010750513" it is known to record the efficiency and the energy
output of the plant over a short period of time. It appears from the
study that the mere comparison of e.g., the energy output in the same
month of e.g., two consecutive years does not allow inference on the
aging of the PV modules since the values characterizing the energy output
such as radiation intensity and temperature differ too much.
[0005]Methods are known, which are based on artificially accelerated aging
tests. These tests are only performed for certain conditions such as
temperature and irradiation and are thus usually allocated safety
factors. Hence, the efficiency a manufacturer guarantees after a certain
time is usually less than the actual efficiency drop. For such tests,
additional sensors are moreover utilized for sensing for example the
temperature or radiation intensity.
[0006]In practice, the power drop of the solar module is very difficult to
follow over time. It is difficult to locate whether the power drop is
within the limits indicated by the manufacturer since certain general
conditions are needed for this purpose such as a certain outside
temperature, precise sensors or calibratable radiation sensors and the
like.
BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
[0007]It is the object of the invention to find a method of the type
mentioned herein above by means of which a long-term power reduction of
solar modules in an installed solar plant can be readily determined with
high accuracy.
[0008]This object is solved by the following method steps: [0009]fixing
at least one class k, which is comparable on a year-to-year basis, within
which a daily power curve or portions of the daily power curve of the
photovoltaic module can be compared to each other on the basis of the
radiation intensity and the outside temperature to be expected as well as
of the radiation time, said class k corresponding to a defined time
range, [0010]measuring energy output values Ek,n that can be compared on
a year-to-year basis from a comparable power curve Pk,n (t) by the
variable delivered by the photovoltaic generator so that energy
differences will be determined on the basis of the classes k, n being the
respective year, [0011]indicating a power reduction of the p
hotovoltaic
module with respect to one or more previous years of the energy output
value Ek,n immediately delivered by the photovoltaic module by
calculating the difference from the energy outputs Ek,I of the comparable
years i, [0012]data of comparable days having a comparable power curve
P(t) of the photovoltaic module are being observed over several years.
[0013]Further advantageous implementations of the invention are
characterized in the dependent claims.
[0014]Thanks to the measurement method of the invention, it is possible to
determine very precisely a long-term power reduction without the need of
additional sensors.
[0015]The invention relies on the observation that comparable days in
terms of radiation intensity and temperature of the solar plant can be
found over several years, these days allowing a reliable statement with
regards to power reduction thanks to their comparability. In order to
ensure comparability in terms of solar radiation, it is possible to
compare over the years days in which a power curve P(t) is almost
identical for example. Since the radiation intensity and the radiation
time fluctuate in the course of a year, the year is divided in several
periods, i.e., in several classes k. k may for example be equal to 52 so
that the comparison may be made weekly. The actual comparison then only
occurs within one class k over the years n.
[0016]Accordingly, the invention relies on the idea consisting in
observing the energy output of the solar plant over several years. Actual
data are compared with the values in previous years. This allows locating
in which way the energy output decreases over the years.
[0017]In every year, the days must be found at which the energy output of
the solar plant is comparable with values of previous years in order to
be capable of making a reliable statement in terms of power reduction.
[0018]Accordingly, for each year n, there may be a maximum of k energy
values. These energy values can be compared to the energy values of a
previous year, for example to those of the previous year or of the first
year. The difference between the energy values is for example a measure
of the power reduction. This difference can be normalized. The energy
amount of the previous year may serve as a standard.
[0019]Accordingly, the invention allows observing over the years power
reduction within one class. Thanks to this accurate measurement, a solar
plant can thus be connected for a longer time to a grid without
maintenance works. It is also possible to locate early increased power
reduction so that photovoltaic modules can be exchanged in time.
[0020]To measure the energy output, a variable of the generator such as
the generator current, the generator voltage or the generator power can
be measured.
[0021]In an advantageous embodiment of the measurement method of the
invention, there are provided at least two classes k, which are
distributed over the year and within which the daily power curves or the
portion of the daily power curve are comparable on the basis of the
radiation intensity and the outside temperature as well as of the
radiation time. This allows for taking into consideration the seasonal
fluctuations of the radiation intensity and of the outside temperature as
well as of the irradiation time to be expected.
[0022]Sensing or filing a daily curve of the power P of the generator as
well as of the energy output E of the photovoltaic generator of the day
is particularly advantageous, a day power curve P(t) being determined,
the course of which is comparable to at least one day curve Pk,n(t) from
previous years. Accordingly, a measurement of the day curve of the power
of the solar generator P(t) as well as of the daily energy output Etag,
i.e., of the two variables is advantageous. These values can be recorded
and filed in a data bank, for example by means of a data logger. Within
each class k, one day power curve Pk,n(t) the course of which is
comparable to the day power curves Pk,i(t) from previous years can be
determined for each year n. This also means that at most k energy output
values Ek,n are determined for each year, said energy output values being
compared to the energy output values Ek,I of the previous years i, for
example the first year values Ek, 1 so that at the most k values are
determined for the energy differences .DELTA.Ek,n. At least one of these
energy differences .DELTA.Ek,n related to an energy output value Ek,i of
a previous year, for example of the first year Ek,1 is used to indicate
the power reduction of the solar generator.
[0023]Accordingly, within each class, one day or one measurement period is
determined the power curve P(t) and the energy output E of which is
comparable to measurements performed in earlier days.
[0024]It is advantageous that a number ktmax of day classes kj is formed.
The day classes correspond to time periods that are associated with fixed
time intervals and that are distributed over the daily sunshine period to
be expected. This comparison then occurs between measurement intervals
comprising both the same k and kj classes. One class may also be a class
having a same pair of coefficients (k, kj) or a same tuple. In the
variant widened to include the day classes, there is a maximum of k*kj
energy values E((k,kj),n), which are compared to the energy values of the
previous years. Differences and averages can be calculated here.
[0025]In an advantageous embodiment of the invention, comparable days are
determined within one class in two steps at most, namely by calculating
and evaluating the first derivation Pk'(t) of the function Pk(t).
[0026]The first derivation Pk'(t) of the data host Pk(t) is hereby
calculated and it is checked whether certain limit values have been
respected. If these limit values are exceeded or not reached, it can be
assumed that this day was cloudless.
[0027]Alternatively, the first derivation Pk'(t) is calculated and
evaluated by testing a curve area included therein for fixed limit
values. In a first step, the first derivation Pk'(t) then enters an
evaluation method which yields values that are not allowed to exceed or
fall short of imposed limit values.
[0028]Using a plausibility criterion, it can be clearly determined in a
second step whether the day is really cloudless. One plausibility
criterion may for example be measurement data from the data host Pk(t)
lying within tolerance bands such as a tolerance band for a certain
region or a tolerance band for summer days and one for winter days. This
means that this plausibility criterion is applied to the data host P(t)
for example.
[0029]An alternative plausibility criterion is applied to the energy
output Ek,tag. The energy output Ek,tag is not allowed to fall short of
an imposed limit value either.
[0030]As an alternative or in addition thereto zero crossings of the first
derivation Pk'(t) are advantageously evaluated in another implementation.
A day is clearly cloudless if there is only one zero crossing. This
evaluation method can be performed in only one step.
[0031]It is further sensible to impose limit values in the first year and
to verify these limit values in the following years.
[0032]In another advantageous developed implementation of the method of
the invention there is provided that at least one average value
.DELTA.Emittel is calculated from the k energy difference values
.DELTA.Ek,n for the year n as a measure for power reduction. By
calculating the average, it is possible to make a very precise statement
about the aging condition of the solar cells. The advantage of this way
of proceeding is that quotients or percentage values obtained thereby,
meaning daily and weekly values, can be averaged both for the k and for
the kj classes. One thus obtains a very wide statistical basis, which
ensures good accuracy of the values.
[0033]A particular benefit is obtained if a daily power curve is
determined, which substantially comprises a daily power maximum. This
case occurs if the day is cloudless. In this variant of the invention,
only energy values from measurement periods are compared in which there
was no shadow. Shadowing can be recognized with the methods mentioned
herein above.
[0034]In this variant, time periods of shadow are recognized by evaluating
the change in luminosity occasioned by passing clouds. In principle, one
locates the change in luminosity by calculating the derivation of the
power generated by the solar plant with respect to time. High values of
such a derivation are evaluated by an evaluation algorithm which
calculates whether the time range of the measurement was influenced by
clouds. An effect of benefit is obtained by implementing an evaluation
standard through fix or adaptive threshold values. An evaluation standard
with amount averages, quadratic averages or other values can be utilized.
An advantage is obtained if a time range with shadowing is recognized by
comparing the amount of power or energy generated in the time range with
a comparative value. If there are significant negative differences, there
were shadows. Such a comparative value can be generated from a model of
radiation on a cloudless day. A comparative value can also be calculated
from the radiation values of previous days, in particular if these
corresponding time intervals were recognized to be cloudless. An effect
of benefit is obtained if a comparative value is calculated from values
of previous years that have been stored.
[0035]An exemplary embodiment will be described in closer detail with
reference to the drawings, additional developed implementations of the
invention and advantages thereof being described herein.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0036]In said drawings:
[0037]FIG. 1a shows a matrix for several years 1 through n as well as
several classes 1 through k showing energy outputs,
[0038]FIG. 1b shows a matrix comparable to that of FIG. 1a, this matrix
now showing the energy differences,
[0039]FIG. 2a shows a measured curve of the power P of a photovoltaic
generator for a cloudless day,
[0040]FIG. 2b shows a schematic course of the curve shown in FIG. 2a,
[0041]FIG. 2c shows the course of the first derivation for the function
shown in FIG. 2b,
[0042]FIG. 3a shows a measured gradient of the power P of the p
hotovoltaic
generator for a day with passing clouds, is FIG. 3b shows a schematic
curve of the power shown in FIG. 3a for the day with passing clouds,
[0043]FIG. 3c shows the course of the first derivation for the function
shown in FIG. 3b,
[0044]FIG. 4a shows the measured course of the power P of the p
hotovoltaic
generator for a cloudy day,
[0045]FIG. 4b shows the schematic curve of the power P for this day with
overcast sky,
[0046]FIG. 4c shows the curve of the first derivation for the function
shown in FIG. 4b.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
[0047]FIG. 1a illustrates a matrix with energy output data for several
years 1 through n, which are indicated in the matrix lines as well as for
several classes 1 through k, which are indicated in the columns. The
formulae below the matrix indicate the energy differences for each class
k and for the respective year n. For each year n, one then has k energy
values E.sub.k,n. These energy values passing clouds can then be compared
to the energy values E.sub.k,l of the year before i, of any previous year
or of the first year. The difference .DELTA.E.sub.k,n=E.sub.k,i-E.sub.k,n
is taken to measure the power reduction. This difference can be
normalized. The energy output of the year before i can for example serve
as a standard so that the power reduction can be expressed by
.DELTA.E.sub.k,n/E.sub.k,i=(E.sub.k,i-E.sub.k,n)/E.sub.k,l As a result, a
power reduction of the photovoltaic modules can be observed within one
class over several years.
[0048]Accordingly, in FIG. 1a, .DELTA.E.sub.1,n through .DELTA.E.sub.k,n
signify energy differences for each class. .DELTA.E*.sub.l,n means
normalized energy differences for each class; this will be explained in
closer detail later.
[0049]In accordance with the invention, the method is based on the
measurement or on the acquisition of the daily curve of the power of the
solar generator P(t) as well as on a daily energy output Etag. These data
can be stored in a data bank.
[0050]Distributed over the year, there are several classes k. Two classes
k are required though. This is beneficial in order to take into account a
seasonal radiation intensity as well as a seasonal dependent outside
temperature.
[0051]Within each class k, a power curve Pk,n(t) is determined for each
year n, said curve having a course that is comparable with the daily
power curves Pk,I of previous years i.
[0052]I.e., for each year, a maximum number k of energy output values
E.sub.k,n are ascertained, which are compared to the energy output values
E.sub.k,I of the previous years, for example with the energy output
values E.sub.k,l, so that a maximum number k of values is determined for
the energy differences .DELTA.E.sub.k,n.
[0053]At least one of these energy differences .DELTA.E.sub.k,n related to
an energy output value E.sub.k,l of a previous year i, for example of the
first year value E.sub.k,l, is used to indicate the power reduction of
the photovoltaic generator.
[0054]Preferably, the energy outputs are related to one day. I.e., within
each class one ascertains a day the power curve P(t) and the energy
output E of which are comparable with measurements performed in earlier
days. For each year n, one then has k energy values E.sub.k,n, which
relate to one day. These daily energy values E.sub.k,n can then be
compared with the daily energy values E.sub.k,n-1 of the year before or
with the energy values E.sub.k,l of the first year or of any year.
[0055]In FIG. 1b there is shown another matrix which includes the energy
differences for several years 1 through n as well as for all classes 1
through k. Below the matrix, there is shown a measurement graph showing
the energy differences .DELTA.E related to the years 1 through n.
[0056]From these variables, mean values from all the k energy differences
.DELTA.(E.sub.k,n) can be acquired for one year n, namely with the
formula:
.DELTA. E mittel , n = 1 k m = 1 k .DELTA.
E m , n ##EQU00001##
[0057]For normalized energy differences, the above mentioned formula takes
the following form:
.DELTA. E mittel , n * = 1 k m = 1 k .DELTA.
E m , n * ##EQU00002##
[0058]Then, the values .DELTA.E.sub.mittel,n or .DELTA.E*.sub.mittel,n
indicate a yearly average value for power reduction of the photovoltaic
generator in the respective year n.
[0059]It is also possible to consider quadratic averages or an average to
the power of p, i.e., .DELTA.(E.sub.k,n).sup.p or
.DELTA.(E.sub.(k,kj),n).sup.p. As a result, a significant change in the
values is possible through which the ageing process of the cells can be
normalized. An effect of benefit is obtained if p is a constant comprised
between 2 and 6. Herein after, location is described for comparable days.
[0060]The FIGS. 2a, 3a and 4a show different daily power curves P(t) for
different weather conditions. In FIG. 2a, the measured power curve is
based on a cloudless day. In FIG. 3a, a measured curve of the power P of
the solar generator is shown as a function of the time for a day with
passing clouds, the sun irradiating periodically the p
hotovoltaic
generator through holes in said clouds. In FIG. 4a, the measured curve of
the power P of the solar generator relates to a very cloudy day or to a
day with constant weak solar radiation.
[0061]As shown in FIG. 2a, the radiation power of the sun increases at
sunrise. About noon, it reaches its maximum peak. Toward sunset, the
radiation falls toward zero again. FIG. 2a accordingly illustrates the
measured curve of the power P of a photovoltaic generator or of one or
more p
hotovoltaic modules as a function of time t for a cloudless day. As
can be seen from the curve, there is only one daily maximum with respect
to power P. There is no power break due to passing clouds.
[0062]In FIG. 3a it can be seen that there are strong power fluctuations.
The intensity of the radiation of the photovoltaic modules, which has
changed because of the passing clouds, can be seen clearly.
[0063]If a day generates a curve as shown in FIG. 4a, the day is for
example cloudy or rainy and the solar radiation quite low. Typically,
this may be a winter day.
[0064]Accordingly, the FIGS. 2a, 3a and 4a show typical measured power
curves
[0065]P(t) for days with different weather conditions, these being in
discrete form, i.e., they constitute effective measured variables. For
simplicity's sake, these functions are shown schematically or as
continuous functions in the FIGS. 2b, 3b and 4b. The discrete measurement
data can also be transformed into continuous functions through
appropriate interpolation methods.
[0066]Preferably, in a first step, the first derivation P'(t) of the power
curve P(t) is formed and evaluated for each day, as shown in the FIGS.
2c, 3c and 4c.
[0067]FIG. 2b shows the cloudless, sunny day. A plurality of measurement
results are filed in a data bank over the day.
[0068]These results are shown in the curve through measurement points on
the curve. The curve has a day maximum peak, which is typically about
noon. The area below the curves corresponds to the curve integral or to
the energy.
[0069]FIG. 3b schematically shows the power curve for passing clouds. A
kind of harmonics, which are generated by the periodical shadowing
through the clouds, are superimposed on a basic curve, which corresponds
to the curve in FIG. 2b.
[0070]In order to be capable of determining a power reduction of the solar
module with very high accuracy, data having a comparable power curve P(t)
of the photovoltaic module or of the solar plant are preferably observed
over several years. As they are comparable, it is possible to make a
reliable statement with respect to power reduction of the photovoltaic
module. In principle, completely cloudy days as illustrated in FIG. 4a or
4b or days with passing clouds as shown in the FIG. 3a or 3b are in
principle suited for comparison. A comparison with cloudless days is
however preferred, i.e., a curve as shown in FIG. 2a or 2b is compared
year by year.
[0071]The measurement method preferably uses the power curve P(t) as well
as the energy output E that corresponds to the area enclosed by the
curve. This area is hatched in the FIGS. 2b, 3b and 4b. Both are
evaluated. Through this measurement method, additional information such
as outside temperature or radiation data is not needed. Sensors are not
needed either since the power data are measured from the variable of the
photovoltaic module that has been delivered. A voltage, a current or both
can be measured. It is also possible to directly measure the power.
[0072]The FIGS. 2c through 4c show the first derivation P'(t) of the
functions shown in the FIGS. 2b through 4b.
[0073]FIG. 4b shows an example for the curve of the power of the
photovoltaic generator as a function of time (t) for a day with overcast
sky. In FIG. 4c, there is for example shown the associated first
derivation with respect to time. As opposed to a cloudless day, the
maximum power Pmax can however be significantly less.
[0074]In a first step, the function P'(t) is formed.
[0075]The first derivation P'(t) can be evaluated in different ways. The
evaluation clearly indicates whether the day is cloudless or not, as
shown in FIG. 3c.
[0076]In a second step, one then analyzes and makes certain whether a
cloudless day has indeed been found. For this purpose, the power curve
P(t) or its first derivation P'(t) is evaluated. Preferably, two
evaluation steps are utilized in order to reliably acquire a comparable
cloudless day.
[0077]In one of the steps, the first derivation P'(t) is evaluated. For
this purpose, there are two possibilities of evaluating the first
derivation P'(t). A first possibility is based on the fact that the
evaluation method is based on analyzing a maximum for P'(t). If, as shown
in FIG. 2c, the maximum value P'max is for example below an imposed limit
(upper dashed line) or if the minimum value P'min is above an imposed
limit P'min (lower dashed line), it is supposed that the day is
cloudless.
[0078]As shown in FIG. 3c, the first derivation of the power curve for a
day with passing clouds has a much higher maximum value P'max but also a
much lower minimum value P'min than the first derivation of the power
curve for a cloudless day shown in FIG. 2c. In the FIGS. 2c, 3c and 4c,
the upper limit P'max and the lower limit P'min are also shown as dashed
lines. Such limit values can also be defined for certain regions. This is
possible because average radiation values are known in principle for all
the regions in a country. Since radiation values are not only known for
regions but also e.g., for certain cities, fine-tuning is possible. These
limit values are advantageously acquired and fixed for e.g., a cloudless
day in the first year the plant is in operation. Then, verification is
performed in the course of the years. Thus, even long-term climatic
changes in a region due to climate change can be taken into
consideration.
[0079]As shown in FIG. 4c, the values of the first derivation of the power
curve for an overcast day are also below or above the imposed limits.
Another criterion can be readily used to undoubtedly and automatically
locate a cloudless day. This is advantageous because a completely cloudy
day yields a daily power curve P(t) that is similar to that of a
cloudless day.
[0080]A second possibility of evaluating the first derivation P'(t) is
described herein after. In this variant of the evaluation method, P'(t)
is also formed from the power curve P(t) for each day.
[0081]For each day, the integral is for example determined
I = 1 Tag .intg. Tag ( P ' ( t ) t ) 2
t ##EQU00003##
If the value I acquired lies below a maximum allowable limit I_max so that
I<I_max, it can be assumed that the day is cloudless and this day can
be included in calculating the power reduction. This limit is obtained
from typical radiation values and depends for example on the geographical
situation. The corresponding day is then fixed according to the same
pattern as in the previous example of the evaluation method of P'(t).
[0082]The integral I is a measure for the area included in the first
derivation P'(t). A comparison between the FIGS. 2c and 4c clearly shows
that the area enclosed by the curve is significantly smaller on a cloudy
day. This area is determined by the integral I. This means, if
I<I_max, the day may also be cloudy. Therefore, it is appropriate to
perform an additional evaluation step.
[0083]In another possibility of evaluating the first derivation P'(t),
only the zero crossings of the P'(t) are taken into consideration. If the
day is for example cloudless, the number of zero crossings of the curve
P(t) is equal to 1. This zero crossing takes place at the time of power
maximum, as shown in FIG. 2c. If more than one zero crossing is located,
as is illustrated in FIG. 3c, it can be assumed that the day is not
cloudless.
[0084]Herein after, the second step of evaluating the power curve P(t) is
described in closer detail.
[0085]Since in the first step it is at first only supposed that the day is
cloudless or not, this must be confirmed in a second step.
[0086]There are different variants to achieve this. The first possibility
is to evaluate the daily power curve P(t) in the second step.
[0087]The first method for evaluating the daily power curve P(t) consists
in determining the daily energy output Etag and in comparing it with an
imposed minimum value. If the daily energy output Etag exceeds this
minimum value, it is certain that the day is cloudless.
[0088]The second evaluation method in the second step consists in
evaluating the extreme values of the power curve P(t). For this purpose,
an absolute value of the power Pabs is acquired from the host of data
P(t) measured within one day. It may for example be the maximum value
Pmax of the power P(t) for the day observed or also an average of several
power maxima. If this value Pabs lies within a tolerance band ranging
from Pabs_min to Pabs_max, then it may well be a relatively cloudless
day. Indirectly one also considers the radiation intensity and the
duration without the need for an additional sensor.
[0089]This method can be even further improved by using the measurement or
the measurement values of the temperature of the modules and/or of the
outside temperature.
* * * * *